The U.S.-China Technology Competition: What’s At Stake for the West’s Future?

For over 97% of Americans alive today, we have only known a world where freedom is the desired destiny of each nation, democracy provides the best model for society, technology improves human welfare, and the United States stands as the leading global superpower. But an intense competition is now unfolding that will determine whether this reality continues or fundamentally changes.

This future will be shaped primarily by the technological competition between the United States and China. To truly understand what’s at stake, we need to imagine what an alternative future might look like if the People’s Republic of China prevails—if Beijing succeeds in controlling global digital infrastructure, dominates technology platforms, controls production of critical technologies, and harnesses emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, biotech, and new energy forms.

Six Troubling Outcomes of Chinese Technological Dominance

• First, China would dominate the world economy and capture trillions in value from the next wave of technologies. The United States and allies would lose out on jobs and growth while supply chains for new technologies would be built in China. Beijing’s tech dominance would create powerful platforms replacing U.S.-based companies in key areas like cloud services, social media, and internet search.
• Second, China’s technological sphere of influence would spread globally. Beijing would leverage its technological advantage for political gain, with nations—including U.S. allies—becoming increasingly dependent on Chinese technologies and inevitably swinging into its political orbit. Countries reliant on China’s digital infrastructure would become unwilling to oppose Beijing during global crises.
• Third, the open internet would be compromised as digital oppression replaces digital freedom. Beijing’s vision of a “sovereign internet” would sweep the globe, effectively globalizing China’s surveillance state. Chinese-backed tech platforms would shape global discourse through sophisticated algorithms, while Beijing would control digital payment infrastructure and collect vast amounts of data to target individuals and refine propaganda.
• Fourth, the digital infrastructure of nations would become cyber-compromised. The world would depend on China for core digital technologies woven into every critical system—from energy grids and ports to financial systems and government offices. These vulnerabilities could be exploited as threats during disagreements or deployed as cyber attacks during crises.
• Fifth, the U.S. military’s technological edge would erode. China could use its dominant position in autonomous systems, robotics, and mass manufacturing to build weapon systems that outmatch U.S. capabilities, creating new warfighting paradigms and undermining confidence in American military deterrence. This combination of reduced capability and allied hedging would force painful compromises in the Indo-Pacific, this century’s most critical region.
• Sixth, Beijing could threaten to cut off—or actually cut off—the supply of chips and other critical technology inputs. China could deny access to rare-earth materials necessary for energy, digital, and defense technologies, and cut off the supply of leading-edge semiconductors, 92% of which are produced in Taiwan. This would degrade America’s military capabilities and potentially plunge the nation into economic depression.

The Stakes Could Not Be Higher

In aggregate, this alternative future would unravel the world order the United States and its allies painstakingly built after World War II and present a serious challenge to future American prosperity. The United States and other democracies would become economically dependent, losing both their engines of prosperity and freedom of action in the world.

Our leaders would face impossible choices: compromise our beliefs, sacrifice allies to secure a place in a different world order, or fight to sustain the U.S. position from a diminished position of strength. Even if only some of these scenarios came to pass, the world would be a much darker place for the United States and for freedom globally, transforming our daily lives in ways impossible to ignore.

This losing scenario is plausible. We’ve already witnessed how China wields technological advantages to extract data, coerce compliance, and punish individuals, companies, and nations that don’t act according to its wishes or criticize its policies.

When we consider the current state of technological competition, how we arrived here, our preparedness to harness emerging technologies, and where trends suggest we’re heading, there is ample reason for concern. The time to address this challenge is now.